The causes that led to the war between Russia and Ukraine were complex and developed over a long period of time. Let’s take a closer look at the main factors.
1. Conflict between historical grudge and national identity:
- Common origins, different paths: Russia and Ukraine both trace their origins to Kievan Rus', an East Slavic state from the 9th to 12th centuries. However, they have since taken different historical paths, forming different cultures and identities.
- Rule of the Russian Empire: From the mid-17th century, significant parts of Ukraine's territory were gradually annexed by the Russian Empire, and Ukrainian autonomy was gradually reduced. This became the seed of the Ukrainian nationalist movement.
- Soviet Union Era: Ukraine was one of the republics of the Soviet Union, but under the Russian-led federal system, it experienced suppression of its national culture and language. The Holodomor, a famine caused by Stalin's forced collectivization policy in the 1930s, left a deep trauma to Ukrainians, fostering anti-Russian sentiment.
- Conflict after independence: Although Ukraine declared independence in 1991, Russia tried to bring Ukraine under its sphere of influence, emphasizing historical and cultural ties. There was also conflict within Ukraine between those who valued relations with Russia and those who sought integration with the West.
2. NATO’s Eastward Advance:
- Russian Security Concerns: Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has consistently felt threatened by NATO's expansion to include Eastern European countries. Russia views Ukraine's accession to NATO as a serious violation of its core security interests.
- The West's position: NATO maintained that membership was a matter for each country to decide on its own, and that Russia's concerns were unfounded. Under NATO's "Open Door Policy," Ukraine was also considered eligible for NATO membership.
3. Ukraine’s internal political situation and pro-Western policies:
- Orange Revolution (2004): The Orange Revolution, which brought a pro-Western leader to power after a controversial election, was seen by Russia as a demonstration of Western influence expanding in Ukraine.
- Euromaidan Revolution (2013-2014): Mass protests (Euromaidan) erupted after pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union (EU), ultimately leading to his overthrow. Russia strongly condemned the event, calling it a Western-backed "coup."
- Strengthening pro-Western policies: After the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine pursued a policy of strengthening cooperation with the EU and NATO, which presented Russia with a greater security threat.
4. Attempts to maintain Russia’s sphere of influence and expand its influence:
- 'Near Abroad' Doctrine: Russia has defined the former Soviet Union countries as its 'near abroad' and sought to maintain influence in this region. Ukraine was a key target of this doctrine.
- Annexation of Crimea (2014): Shortly after the Euromaidan Revolution, Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine by force and annexed it to Russia after a referendum. Russia claimed it would protect the Russian-speaking population of Crimea and for historical reasons.
- Support for the Donbas War (since 2014): Russia has supported pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, engaging in armed conflicts with Ukrainian government forces. This is a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- The justification for ‘demilitarizing’ and ‘denazifying’ Ukraine: At the time of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Putin claimed that he would ‘demilitarize’ and ‘denazify’ Ukraine and protect its ethnic Russian population. This was a claim that denied Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence.
In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine war is the result of a complex historical relationship spanning hundreds of years, changes in the security landscape after the Cold War, Ukraine’s pro-Western policy, and Russia’s attempts to maintain and expand its sphere of influence. In particular, the Euromaidan Revolution in 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and its support for the Donbass War have led to a drastic deterioration in bilateral relations and have become the direct cause of a full-scale invasion in 2022.
The Russo-Ukrainian War is a complex and ongoing conflict with roots stretching back decades. Here's a breakdown of the key aspects:
1. Origins and Background:
- Post-Soviet Tensions: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, 스포츠토토사이트 declared its independence. However, Russia continued to view Ukraine as being within its sphere of influence.
- NATO Expansion: The eastward expansion of NATO, a military alliance formed to counter the Soviet Union, was seen by Russia as a threat to its security interests.
- Political Divisions in Ukraine: Ukraine has historically had internal political divisions, with some regions leaning towards closer ties with Europe and others favoring Russia.
- The Orange Revolution (2004): Pro-Western protests in Ukraine followed a disputed presidential election, leading to a change in government that was viewed negatively by Russia.
- Russia-Georgia War (2008): Russia's military intervention in Georgia demonstrated its willingness to use force to protect its perceived interests in the former Soviet space.
- Euromaidan Revolution (2014): Mass protests erupted in Ukraine after the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union, leading to his ousting. Russia viewed this as a Western-backed coup.
2. The Start of the War (2014):
- Annexation of Crimea: In the aftermath of the Euromaidan Revolution, Russia moved to occupy and then formally annexed the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, following a disputed referendum. Russia cited the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea.
- War in Donbas: Russia supported pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. These separatists declared independence, leading to an armed conflict against the Ukrainian military in the Donbas region.
3. Escalation and the 2022 Full-Scale Invasion:
- Growing Military Presence: In late 2021 and early 2022, Russia amassed a large military force along its border with Ukraine, leading to international concerns of an imminent invasion.
- Putin's Justification: On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin stated the goals of the "special military operation" were to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine and protect Russian speakers, falsely portraying Ukraine as a Nazi state committing genocide.
- Initial Invasion: Russia's initial aim was believed to be a swift capture of Kyiv and the overthrow of the pro-Western government. However, Ukrainian forces mounted a strong resistance, thwarting Russia's initial advances.
4. Key Phases and Developments:
- Initial Invasion (February - April 2022): Russia's offensive focused on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and southern Ukraine, but faced significant setbacks due to Ukrainian resistance and logistical issues.
- Withdrawal from the North (April 2022): Russia withdrew its forces from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, focusing its efforts on eastern and southern Ukraine.
- Southeastern Front (April - August 2022): Intense fighting occurred in the Donbas region and the south, with Russia eventually capturing Mariupol after a devastating siege in May 2022.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensives (August - November 2022): Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in the Kharkiv region in the northeast and Kherson in the south, retaking significant territory.
- Stalemate and Attrition (November 2022 - June 2023): The front lines largely stabilized, and the war became characterized by intense artillery duels and attrition warfare, particularly in the east.
- 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive (June - December 2023): Ukraine launched another major counteroffensive with the aim of breaking through Russian defenses, but made limited territorial gains.
- 2024 Onward: Fighting has continued to be concentrated in the east, with Russia making some gradual advances, particularly around Avdiivka. Ukraine has focused on defending its territory and conducting drone and missile strikes on Russian-occupied areas and within Russia itself.
5. Current Situation (May 2025):
- Intense Fighting: Fierce battles continue along the eastern and southern front lines, particularly around Donetsk and in the Kharkiv region where Russia launched a new incursion in recent weeks but Ukraine says its forces are still active there.
- No Major Breakthroughs: Neither side has achieved significant territorial breakthroughs in recent months. The war has largely become a war of attrition.
- Ceasefire Talks: Direct peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations were held in Istanbul for the first time in three years. While a large-scale prisoner swap of 1,000 prisoners from each side was agreed upon, there was no ceasefire agreement. Russia reportedly demanded Ukraine withdraw from four additional regions as a condition for a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed as "detached from reality".
- International Involvement: The United States and other Western countries continue to provide significant military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. However, there have been discussions and some delays in aid packages.
- Civilian Casualties and Displacement: The war has caused immense human suffering, with tens of thousands of civilian casualties and millions displaced from their homes.
6. International Response:
- Widespread Condemnation: The invasion has been widely condemned by governments and international organizations around the world.
- Sanctions on Russia: Numerous countries have imposed extensive economic sanctions on Russia, targeting its financial sector, energy industry, and key individuals.
- Military Aid to Ukraine: Many countries have provided Ukraine with military equipment, ranging from small arms to advanced missile systems.
- Humanitarian Aid: Significant humanitarian assistance has been provided to Ukraine and to refugees in neighboring countries.
- International Investigations: Investigations are underway into potential war crimes committed during the conflict.
7. Key Issues and Potential Outcomes:
- Territorial Integrity of Ukraine: A central issue is the restoration of Ukraine's full territorial integrity, including Crimea and the currently occupied territories.
- Security Guarantees: Ukraine seeks long-term security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.
- Neutrality: Russia has demanded that Ukraine become a neutral state and abandon its aspirations to join NATO.
- War Crimes Accountability: Holding those responsible for war crimes accountable is a crucial aspect of any resolution.
- Long-Term Impact on Regional and Global Security: The war has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape and has implications for European security and international relations.
The war in Ukraine is a dynamic and tragic situation with far-reaching consequences. The future remains uncertain, with diplomatic efforts ongoing alongside continued fighting on the ground.